Study of China’s Ammonia Market and Its Role in Economic Decarbonization

Eurasia Development Group: China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of ammonia. By 2050, a new large-scale low-carbon ammonia market is expected to emerge in China, with consumption reaching up to 130 million tonnes.

Amid rapidly growing demand for low-carbon energy sources, ammonia is becoming one of the key instruments of decarbonization.

The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of China’s ammonia market, assesses the transition from grey ammonia to blue and green ammonia, and models consumption prospects through 2050.

Key Findings

• China accounts for more than 20% of the global ammonia market. Consumption reached 59.4 million tonnes in 2023, with most ammonia currently produced from hydrocarbons and classified as grey ammonia.
• China imported 660,000 tonnes of ammonia in 2022, worth USD 231 million.
• By 2030, ammonia consumption in the energy and transport sectors could exceed 10 million tonnes per year, rising to 130 million tonnes by 2050.
• The low-carbon ammonia market is projected to reach USD 6.8 billion by 2030 and nearly USD 100 billion by 2050.

Market Drivers

Rising coal and natural gas prices, stricter environmental requirements, and the broader decarbonization agenda are accelerating the transition from grey to blue and green ammonia.
Government subsidies and CO₂ reduction targets provide long-term support for investment in low-carbon technologies.

What This Means for Russian Players

• Seaborne supplies of blue ammonia to China’s eastern coastal provinces, where demand is high and local production capacity remains insufficient.
• Participation in infrastructure development, including terminals and regional storage and transportation facilities.
• Cooperation in shipbuilding, including components and technologies for ammonia-fueled vessels.
• Joint ventures and technology licensing projects for low-carbon ammonia production.

Expert Comment
“We are witnessing the emergence of a multibillion-dollar ammonia market as a new commodity, in which Russian energy companies not only can, but should, secure leading positions,” says Andrey Prokhorovich, Founder of Eurasia Development Group.