China Auto Market Overview

China remains the world’s largest automotive market, and its structure and dynamics are critically important for global automakers, tire suppliers, logistics companies, and technology players. Amid rapid electrification, growth of the SUV segment, and the gradual renewal of commercial vehicle fleets, China’s role as a key driver of the global automotive market continues to strengthen.

Eurasia Development Group’s study systematizes the key indicators of China’s vehicle fleet, sales dynamics, tire demand patterns, and manufacturer landscape. The article highlights the main findings needed to understand the current state of the sector and its development through 2030.

Key Findings

1. China remains the world’s largest automotive market, while its vehicle fleet continues to expand rapidly and is approaching 500 million vehicles.
2. Electric vehicles are the main growth driver: their share of new vehicle sales is expected to reach 70% by 2030.
3. Tire demand is changing, with a growing share of 18–21-inch sizes, while the replacement market remains dominated by 16–17-inch tires.
4. Commercial vehicles are recovering, with exports becoming a key growth factor for the sector.
5. Chinese manufacturers continue to strengthen their positions, particularly BYD and Geely, while joint ventures and foreign brands continue to lose market share.
6. Electrification will affect every segment, including LCVs, buses, and trucks, although adoption rates will vary.
7. The outlook through 2027–2030 remains positive, with vehicle sales, fleet renewal, and the shift toward EVs and SUVs all expected to continue growing.

China’s Vehicle Fleet: Scale and Growth
Passenger Cars Define the Structure of the Vehicle Fleet
By 2024, China had 453 million vehicles, of which 382 million were passenger cars, accounting for 84.4%. Despite the large absolute fleet size, car ownership remains relatively low:

• 250 passenger cars per 1,000 people;
• significantly below Europe — 567, Japan — 624, and the United States — 868.

China’s passenger vehicle fleet is estimated to reach approximately 450 million vehicles by 2030.

Passenger Vehicle Sales Continue to Grow
Between 2015 and 2024, the market experienced significant volatility, including a decline in 2018–2020, before recovering and stabilizing at approximately 21–23 million units per year.

Growth is expected to remain at approximately 5% annually through 2030.

Growth is particularly concentrated in major cities: 96 Chinese cities have more than 1 million vehicles, while six megacities have fleets exceeding 5 million vehicles.

Electric Vehicles Are Reshaping the Market
EVs Are the Main Source of Growth
By 2024, China had 31 million electric vehicles in operation, representing 8.8% of the total vehicle fleet and 42% of all new registrations. Key EV growth drivers include:

• tax incentives and VAT exemptions;
• subsidies for scrapping older vehicles;
• preferential financing;
• strong activity among Chinese manufacturers.

EVs are expected to account for 55% of sales by 2026 and 70% by 2030.

EV Production Is Growing Faster Than the Overall Market
Between 2020 and 2024:

• EV production increased at an approximately 93% CAGR;
• production of internal combustion engine vehicles declined at an approximately 8% CAGR.

China’s automotive industry is strategically shifting toward electric vehicles, increasing competitive pressure and gradually displacing ICE models.

Commercial Vehicles: 15.6% of the Vehicle Fleet and More Than 50 Million Units
Key Market Indicators
Commercial vehicles account for approximately 15–16% of China’s vehicle fleet, reaching about 50 million units in 2024.
Market dynamics:

• following a decline in 2022, the market returned to growth;
• the fleet is expected to increase to 55 million units by 2030.

Electrification of commercial vehicles remains considerably slower. EVs represent only 2.6% of the fleet, or approximately 1.28 million vehicles, mainly electric buses and electric vans.

Market Structure and Sales
According to CAAM:

• 65–70% of commercial vehicles are trucks, with buses and special-purpose vehicles accounting for the remainder;
• 2024 sales reached 3.8 million units;
• domestic sales totaled approximately 3 million units;
• exports reached 904,000 units, up 17.5%.

Sales Forecast Through 2027
Passenger Vehicle Segment
Passenger vehicle sales are expected to increase from 31.4 million units in 2024 to 35.5 million units in 2027, representing growth of 13%. Key growth drivers:

• exports;
• expansion of the SUV segment;
• stable sedan and MPV demand;
• increasing EV sales.

Commercial Vehicle Segment
Recovery is expected to be supported by:

• fleet renewal;
• urban demand for LCVs;
• infrastructure construction.

Market Leaders: BYD Strengthens Its Dominance Passenger Vehicles
BYD maintained a clear market lead in 2024 with a 16.2% share, supported by:

• deep vertical integration across platforms and batteries;
• a broad portfolio of hybrid and electric vehicles;
• aggressive pricing.

Geely ranks second with 7.7%, followed by FAW-Volkswagen, Changan Auto, and Chery.
Foreign brands continue to lose ground, as their dependence on internal combustion engine vehicles and slower electrification reduce competitiveness against local EV manufacturers.
Commercial VehiclesIn 2024, Foton Motor led the market with a 15.8% share, followed by:

• Dongfeng;
• Chongqing Changan;
• Sinotruk;
• FAW Jiefang.

The sales structure reflects a shift toward light trucks and growing demand for electrified LCVs.