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A Clean New World: How China Plans to Wean Itself Off Coal
December 1, 2021
Andrey Prokhorovich, CEO of Eurasia Development, joined a livestream hosted by Strana Rosatom. We discussed the development of green technologies and hydrogen transport, in which China plans to invest $16 trillion. Below are excerpts from the discussion.
On Economic Growth
I have been working with China since 2001 and lived in the city of Yantai for 14 years. Our team of analysts and consultants specializes in technology transfer between Russia and China.
In 2020, GDP declined in countries around the world because of the pandemic. The U.S. economy contracted by 3.5%, Russia’s by 3.1%, while China was the only one to record economic growth — 2.3%.
And this is hardly surprising. China has already become a leader in several technology fields: new retail, e-commerce and telecommunications.
By the end of 2020, 720,000 5G base stations had been installed across the country. In September, the first 6G satellite was launched into space.
China is ahead of the rest of the world in the pace of industrial robotics deployment. I also believe the country could become a leader in artificial intelligence because no other country in the world possesses such volumes of big data.
In addition, China is pulling ahead in the field of quantum communications.
On the Green Transition
In 2017, the government introduced criminal penalties for officials who violated environmental regulations within the territories under their responsibility.
Before that, the authorities had prioritized economic development, paying relatively little attention to environmental issues.
Over the 30 years from 1990 to 2020, carbon dioxide emissions increased fourfold. In 2004, China became the world’s largest producer of waste.
According to statistics, 43% of CO₂ emissions come from electricity and heat production, around 40% from industry, 7.5% from transport, 6% from agriculture, and 4.5% from construction.
It is therefore clear that the energy sector needs to be restructured first. China consumes enormous quantities of coal, and the question of what can replace it has become particularly urgent.
On Carbon Neutrality
Last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Even according to the most conservative estimates, this will require around $16 trillion.
Investment will go into industry, electric transport and energy — including biofuels, hydrogen and solar power — and primarily into everything related to high technologies.
In China, any government plan immediately receives a response from corporations, venture capital funds, startups, entrepreneurs and ordinary citizens.
For example, Baosteel, the country’s largest steel producer — and the steel industry currently accounts for 15% of China’s carbon dioxide emissions — announced that it would become carbon-neutral by 2050.
Sinopec, one of the leading companies in the global petrochemical market, has announced similar plans.
The company has long invested in electric-vehicle technologies and carbon-waste recycling solutions. A month and a half ago, it also established an investment division that will focus on new forms of energy and environmental protection.
Over the next four years, Sinopec alone plans to invest $4.6 billion in hydrogen.
Many private companies are also focusing on this issue.
Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu do not generate emissions directly, but their data centers consume enormous amounts of electricity.
In 2018, Chinese data centers consumed 161 TWh of electricity — four times as much as the whole of New Zealand.
The government is requiring these companies to reduce their carbon footprints by consuming less energy or switching to renewable energy sources.
In 2020, venture capital funds worldwide invested $17 billion in clean technologies. Most of this investment went to the United States and China.
On Investment in Hydrogen
China has long been the world’s number one country in renewable energy.
In 2020, renewable energy capacity reached 925 GW. Compared with 2019, capacity increased by 72 GW in wind power and 48 GW in solar power.
China plans to invest enormous amounts in hydrogen because the authorities believe it will play a major role in economic growth and in reducing harmful emissions.
According to our estimates, direct government investment alone over the next 40 years will amount to approximately $1.8 trillion.
There will also be indirect investment — in electric vehicles, energy storage and other areas — amounting to around $1 trillion.
For example, as of September this year, China had 2.2 million charging points.
For comparison, there are only 17.3 million electric vehicles worldwide, and 44% of them are in China.
The government has also launched a number of hydrogen transport projects, prompting an immediate response from small, medium-sized and large businesses.
The young company Refire has built two plants, in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces.
The Jiangsu plant is capable of producing 20,000 hydrogen fuel cells per year.
SAIC Motor, a major automotive manufacturer, has developed a range of hydrogen-powered vehicles and plans to offer 10 models by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, Sinopec Chairman Ma Yongsheng said the company plans to build 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations across China by 2025.
China will produce hydrogen domestically, but its own capacity will clearly not be sufficient.
This market is therefore of definite interest to potential suppliers, including Rosatom.
On the Energy Sector of the Future
According to the IAEA database, nuclear power currently accounts for 4.9% of China’s energy mix.
Between 2000 and 2020, 48 reactors were commissioned. Another 20 reactors were planned for the following four years.
By 2060, China is expected to increase the share of nuclear power generation to 19%, even as electricity consumption continues to rise.
China has decided to reduce everything related to coal and hydrocarbons.
These sources currently account for around 70% of electricity generation: more than 50% from coal, 18% from oil, and 2% from gas.
By 2060, their combined share should not exceed 14%.
All remaining electricity is planned to be generated using hydropower, wind, nuclear power, solar energy and biomass.
Original material: https://strana-rosatom.ru/2021/12/01/chistyj-novyj-mir-kak-kitaj-planiruet-s/
I have been working with China since 2001 and lived in the city of Yantai for 14 years. Our team of analysts and consultants specializes in technology transfer between Russia and China.
In 2020, GDP declined in countries around the world because of the pandemic. The U.S. economy contracted by 3.5%, Russia’s by 3.1%, while China was the only one to record economic growth — 2.3%.
And this is hardly surprising. China has already become a leader in several technology fields: new retail, e-commerce and telecommunications.
By the end of 2020, 720,000 5G base stations had been installed across the country. In September, the first 6G satellite was launched into space.
China is ahead of the rest of the world in the pace of industrial robotics deployment. I also believe the country could become a leader in artificial intelligence because no other country in the world possesses such volumes of big data.
In addition, China is pulling ahead in the field of quantum communications.
On the Green Transition
In 2017, the government introduced criminal penalties for officials who violated environmental regulations within the territories under their responsibility.
Before that, the authorities had prioritized economic development, paying relatively little attention to environmental issues.
Over the 30 years from 1990 to 2020, carbon dioxide emissions increased fourfold. In 2004, China became the world’s largest producer of waste.
According to statistics, 43% of CO₂ emissions come from electricity and heat production, around 40% from industry, 7.5% from transport, 6% from agriculture, and 4.5% from construction.
It is therefore clear that the energy sector needs to be restructured first. China consumes enormous quantities of coal, and the question of what can replace it has become particularly urgent.
On Carbon Neutrality
Last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Even according to the most conservative estimates, this will require around $16 trillion.
Investment will go into industry, electric transport and energy — including biofuels, hydrogen and solar power — and primarily into everything related to high technologies.
In China, any government plan immediately receives a response from corporations, venture capital funds, startups, entrepreneurs and ordinary citizens.
For example, Baosteel, the country’s largest steel producer — and the steel industry currently accounts for 15% of China’s carbon dioxide emissions — announced that it would become carbon-neutral by 2050.
Sinopec, one of the leading companies in the global petrochemical market, has announced similar plans.
The company has long invested in electric-vehicle technologies and carbon-waste recycling solutions. A month and a half ago, it also established an investment division that will focus on new forms of energy and environmental protection.
Over the next four years, Sinopec alone plans to invest $4.6 billion in hydrogen.
Many private companies are also focusing on this issue.
Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu do not generate emissions directly, but their data centers consume enormous amounts of electricity.
In 2018, Chinese data centers consumed 161 TWh of electricity — four times as much as the whole of New Zealand.
The government is requiring these companies to reduce their carbon footprints by consuming less energy or switching to renewable energy sources.
In 2020, venture capital funds worldwide invested $17 billion in clean technologies. Most of this investment went to the United States and China.
On Investment in Hydrogen
China has long been the world’s number one country in renewable energy.
In 2020, renewable energy capacity reached 925 GW. Compared with 2019, capacity increased by 72 GW in wind power and 48 GW in solar power.
China plans to invest enormous amounts in hydrogen because the authorities believe it will play a major role in economic growth and in reducing harmful emissions.
According to our estimates, direct government investment alone over the next 40 years will amount to approximately $1.8 trillion.
There will also be indirect investment — in electric vehicles, energy storage and other areas — amounting to around $1 trillion.
For example, as of September this year, China had 2.2 million charging points.
For comparison, there are only 17.3 million electric vehicles worldwide, and 44% of them are in China.
The government has also launched a number of hydrogen transport projects, prompting an immediate response from small, medium-sized and large businesses.
The young company Refire has built two plants, in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces.
The Jiangsu plant is capable of producing 20,000 hydrogen fuel cells per year.
SAIC Motor, a major automotive manufacturer, has developed a range of hydrogen-powered vehicles and plans to offer 10 models by the end of 2025.
Meanwhile, Sinopec Chairman Ma Yongsheng said the company plans to build 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations across China by 2025.
China will produce hydrogen domestically, but its own capacity will clearly not be sufficient.
This market is therefore of definite interest to potential suppliers, including Rosatom.
On the Energy Sector of the Future
According to the IAEA database, nuclear power currently accounts for 4.9% of China’s energy mix.
Between 2000 and 2020, 48 reactors were commissioned. Another 20 reactors were planned for the following four years.
By 2060, China is expected to increase the share of nuclear power generation to 19%, even as electricity consumption continues to rise.
China has decided to reduce everything related to coal and hydrocarbons.
These sources currently account for around 70% of electricity generation: more than 50% from coal, 18% from oil, and 2% from gas.
By 2060, their combined share should not exceed 14%.
All remaining electricity is planned to be generated using hydropower, wind, nuclear power, solar energy and biomass.
Original material: https://strana-rosatom.ru/2021/12/01/chistyj-novyj-mir-kak-kitaj-planiruet-s/
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